Short-Term Planning for Recovery and Survival
(This post was authored by Walt Moeling and Dustin Hall. A version of this post originally appeared in the August 2009 issue of the ABA’s Community Banker magazine.)
The grim economic prognoses we continue to hear about have an immediate impact in the bank board room. Boards must think about short-term planning for recovery and survival because virtually no bank is wholly immune from the current recession. Although the problems may have started with residential real estate in the Sunbelt, they have gone much beyond that now, impacting banks throughout the country.
As a director you must plan for both long-term and short-term. Long-term planning is tremendously important, and we hope to make it to the “long-term,” but short-term planning is critical today.
Short-term planning in this context deals with the reality of today’s marketplace. The focus is not on earnings or even stock value, two traditional focal points for planning. Instead, the focus is on capital management, liquidity, and asset quality.
Capital Management
Your short-term capital planning in the face of mounting losses cannot focus on today or yesterday; it must focus on tomorrow. You must ask: Where are we going? What will happen if housing prices drop for another two and a half years, as predicted by some? Can our borrowers sustain a more prolonged recession? If not, where will our capital be three, six, and nine months from now? In essence, you must stress test your bank to see how far it can go.
A real problem for directors is assuming that capital today is as readily available as it has been for the past 15 years, or that they can sell the bank if there is a real problem. Unfortunately, there is no public market, and virtually no private equity, for bank stock. Those sources are presently closed, shall we say, for repair. Instead, short-term capital is likely to be found only within the boardroom and from family and friends.


Regulators Issue Statement on Lending to Creditworthy Small Businesses
On February 5, 2010, the federal banking regulators and the Conference of State Bank Supervisors issued an Interagency Statement on the Credit Needs of Creditworthy Small Business Borrowers. The Statement builds upon principles set forth in the October 2009 Policy Statement on Prudent Commercial Real Estate Loan Workouts. After noting the overall decline in loans to small businesses and the reasons for that decline the regulators suggested that lenders may have become overly cautious with respect to small business lending. They encourage lenders to engage in prudent small business lending and that that examiners will not criticize lenders for working in prudent and constructive manner with small businesses.
The decline in small business lending has many reasons, not the least of which is that loan demand is actually down. Lenders are also naturally cautious of lending to those businesses that are reliant solely on cash flow that has slowed due to the slowdown in consumer spending and the decline ion the personal wealth of the owners of the businesses. Despite the assertions to the contrary by the regulators, lenders are concerned that there is a disconnect between statements from Washington, DC and what actually happens in the field when examiners are onsite at financial institutions. Our experience seems to show that local federal regulators do not see any upside in being flexible when faced with making decisions about how to rate credits. Lenders are therefore naturally reluctant to maker decisions based on guidance until they see it actually implemented on the ground.